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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."